When exercised against, the Clearing House, at its discretion, selects sellers against which to exercise on a pro rata basis Strike Price Intervals . The average oil price within the current or previous consumption month(s) is used as the index price. Natural gas prices are closely linked to oil prices - either the High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO) price or Brent price. Oil price forecast for 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024. They are usually determined by the stock exchange, using the closing daily values for the monthly data, and normally expressed as simple arithmetic averages of the daily data. • Price & Margin forecasts updated quarterly Widely used in oil industry for strategic planning Short-term Crude Oil and Refining Outlook Separate market reports for tactical planning Other Market Publications LPG studies North American Natural Gas Global LNG Petrochemical Feedstocks Special Topic Studies Residual Fuel Canadian Oil Sands China’s Rapid Growth. Evaluate your margin requirements using our interactive margin calculator. This assists in assessing the true energy cost to shipping companies and can be compared on a MJ/$ basis. The average IFO380 price across the four major global bunkering ports of Singapore, Fujairah, Rotterdam, and Houston Has fallen 21% over the last two weeks, from $401.50/mt on August 2 to $314.50/mt on Friday. Crude oil price analysis and research that covers crude oil futures and oil price forecasts. S Korea HSFO differential hits 4-month high on tight supply 9th December 2020 12:41 GMT Tight supply of the 380 CST high sulfur bunker fuel grade in South Korea has led its differential to benchmark FOB Singapore high sulfur fuel oil cargo assessments to a 4-month high of $73.06/mt on Dec. 9, S&P Global Platts data showed. BunkerEx has investigated where existing 3.5% HSFO bunker demand will go, how this will be replaced and what this means for prices. At 100.7 mb/d, the global total was down 1.3 mb/d on a year ago, with OPEC supply 2.4 mb/d lower. Prices of both 3.5% sulphur US Gulf HSFO and 0.5% sulphur VLSFO fell by 65.5% and 59.5%, respectively, from January 29 to March 27, along with the rest of the oil market. $20.00 Qingdao . The difficulty of enforcing the rules and the extra expense of compliance underpin this forecast. However this has key ‘known unknowns’ such as specifications (currently no standards) and stability (can 2 different types of 0.5% VLSFO fuel be mixed?). The consensus forecast is the sulphur penalty at times will be high, as the … 1: Rotterdam/Antwerp: $ 300: $ 375 Gasoline Prices in Singapore increased to 1.46 USD/Liter in November from 1.43 USD/Liter in October of 2020. As a result, 68% of bunker demand has to be fulfilled by 0.1% MGO – more than double what it is now. Over the course of 14 days, the price for HSFO rose USD 132 per metric tonne from USD 370 to USD 502 in Singapore. Access real-time data, charts, analytics and news from anywhere at anytime. Jan. 1 - 3, 2021; Oil LNG Natural Gas Electric Power Coal Shipping Petrochemicals Metals Agriculture Energy Transition. Data can be downloaded in CSV format for periods covering up to 31 days per file. We also assume that 50% of the small vessels (15% of fuel use or 0.4m bpd of HSFO) will not comply. The cost of 0.1% MGO could go as high as $900/mt from current levels. Detailed forecast table. While a majority of Asian sour crude is priced against the Dubai benchmark, it is generally accepted that the Dubai benchmark itself is a derivative of Brent. This would cause the total spread between HSFO-MGO to be $680/mt (almost double current levels), creating a large incentive for both shipowners and suppliers to find a solution. CME Group is the world's leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace. Even using a [technically incorrect] assumption that sulphur blends linearly, the mixes required to turn a 2.47% HSFO (global average) to 0.5% would be 83% of MGO and 17% of HSFO. Looking for online definition of HSFO or what HSFO stands for? OPEC Forecasts Falling HFO Prices and More Scrubber Orders File image. Discover how you can access our oil prices, news & analysis The introduction of very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) bunker grades will also ensure that the market share for HSFO never returns to pre-IMO levels. We also estimate that there will be 4 000 scrubbers installed on large vessels by … Each type of natural gas carries a different cost. Stream live futures and options market data directly from CME Group. 34 industry leaders from companies such as Maersk, Cargill and Trafigura recently committed to zero-carbon emission fuels by 2030. The future cost of 3.5% HSFO could go as low as $220/mt. Crude oil predictions and projections. 0.5% VLSFO will be attractive based on its price differential to 0.1% MGO. 3.5% HSFO barges will likely switch to 0.5% VLSFO or 0.1% MGO. Shippers and refiners adjust to IMO 2020 shakeup The impact on 3.5% HSFO. In order to compete, 3.5% HSFO will need to be priced at parity with LNG and coal which results in a price of approximately $220/mt. Analysis of the forward price curves of HSFO, LSFO and MGO do not yet reflect the scale of the change and may lead some to underestimate problem. HSFO's record discounts to crude globally helped bring about a demand recovery, led by US refiner buying. $20.00 Rizhao. This index was originally developed in 1960 as a single metric to quantity the sophistication of different refineries. The volume of oil demand affected by this change is significant. Furthermore, the cargoes are then stored, broken down and sold ex-wharf in small lots to barge operators: will there still be barge suppliers dedicated to delivering 3.5% HSFO fuel? US refiner demand. The October 2019 price for HSFO fell to 64.7 USD/bbl from 78.6 USD/bbl in October 2018. In a worst case, HSFO prices may drop to a level where HSFO becomes an attractive fuel for power plants. Gasoline Prices in Singapore averaged 1.49 USD/Liter from 1990 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 1.80 USD/Liter in June of 2015 and a record low of 0.61 USD/Liter in December of 1990. Now consider the supply chain for Singapore of 3.5% HSFO: 3.5% HSFO is typically sourced from the Baltics or Caribbean and then transported to Singapore via VLCC. Crude oil predictions and projections. Even with the uptake in retrofit scrubber demand and the widespread installation on newbuilds, the most optimistic figures indicate that 3,800 ships will have scrubbers by 2020. $20.00 Lanshan. I Need . Please choose another time period or contract. $20.00 Bremerhaven. Several majors have already announced they will have 0.5% VLSFO blends available in the major ports, however current blends are priced at near-parity to 0.1% MGO. Blending Economics (to LS Bunker) Platts Oil helps to develop, connect & explain the market price of crude oil and oil products. This is not just because more ships will run on 0.1% MGO but also for its use in blending to a 0.5% VLSFO (see table above). $114/mt). Indeed, the bunker fuel demand landscape will change dramatically in 2020. In recent weeks, we have updated our projection ahead of the IMO’s forthcoming 0.5 percent sulfur cap. In addition, the quantities available (whether delivered or ex-wharf) are a major uncertainty. In 2016, the International Marine Organization (IMO) agreed to limit the sulfur content in all marine fuels to 0.5 percent beginning in 2020, with the exception of fuel burned in Sulfur Emission Control Area regions, which are already at lower sulfur limits. European HSFO values near 2019 prices, bucking expectations Sep 8 The spread between physical prices for 3.5%S FOB Rotterdam barges in 2019 and 2020 reached as close as $4/mt year on year on Sept. 1, assessed at $257/mt, before the spread widened again. 1: Rotterdam/Antwerp: $ 300: $ 375 ]: Subscribe for a year or order a 1-month trial. In order to compete, 3.5% HSFO will need to be priced at parity with LNG and coal which results in a price of approximately $220/mt. Market Insights and Analytics Commodity Prices and Essential Market Data Real-Time News, Prices and Analysis Maps and Geospatial Data Forward Curves and Risk Valuation Data. Port HSFO-380 VLSFO 0.5% ULSFO 0.1% MGO Deliv. WeWork, 199 Bishopsgate, London, EC2M 3TY or Rambla Josep Tarradellas 1, Bajos D2, Castelldefels 08860, Contact | The regulations could have a major effect on refiner’s profitability and cause a price gap between LSFO and HSFO that only the best-prepared and equipped refiners will benefit from. In its latest monthly Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency cut its forecast for global demand growth in 2019 for a second consecutive month. Natural gas prices are closely linked to oil prices - either the High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO) price or Brent price. Rotterdam IFO 380 Price Today USD/MT, Live & Historical Price Charts Disclaimer  |  Privacy Policy  |  Cookie Policy  |  Terms of Use  |  Data Terms of Use  |  Modern Slavery Act Transparency Statement  |  Report a Security Concern. IMO 2020 and lower sulfur-content requirements. Global oil supply tumbled 780 kb/d in December as biofuels production declined seasonally and Saudi Arabia reduced output. The future cost of 3.5% HSFO could go as low as $220/mt. $20.00 Bremen. Index: IFO 380: VLSFO 0.5: MGO 0.1: World [? Oil price forecast for 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024. US shale oil prospects, 2010-2024 Open. All rights reserved. Existing flows of 3.5% HSFO will likely stop. Net, at our $60/bbl Brent forecast for next year, we now forecast more upside to 2020 gasoline cracks than previously ($8.50/bbl vs. … Singapore has two main sources of natural gas: Piped Natural Gas (PNG) and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). Careers | Dec 21. HSFO is listed in the World's largest and most authoritative dictionary database of abbreviations and acronyms HSFO is listed in the World's largest and most authoritative dictionary database of abbreviations and acronyms As the supplier landscape changes, existing products will need to find new homes and prices: 3.5% HSFO will find its way to power generation and storage from refineries who have to produce it (this might be good for Dirty Tankers as floating storage). World 3 [? Date Price $/mt Change High Low Spread; M Dec 21: 375.50-12.50: 378.00: 373.00: 5.00: F Dec 18: 388.00 +0.50 Global HSFO prices have plummeted to near two-year lows this month as the market begins to feel pressure from the upcoming IMO 2020 rule. IMO 2020: VLSFO to price at US $531/mt in Rotterdam as compared to US $309/mt for HSFO Says Mcquilling Services in Mid-Year Tanker Market Outlook in International Shipping News 02/09/2019 Refining Conversion Reinvestment Economics 1. $20.00 Sovetskaya Gavan. One lot, equivalent to a 1,000 mt contract, of Calendar 2020 0.5%S marine fuel FOB Rotterdam barge-3.5% FOB Rotterdam barge traded February 19 at $160/mt. 1% LSFO, although not compliant itself will be blended with 0.1% MGO to create a 0.5% VLSFO. Please Contact Us! Demand for high-sulfur residual fuel oil for ship bunkers was 3.5 million barrels per day in 2018—out of 7 million barrels per d… This surfaces another big question: will scrubbers again have to change, especially with space on-board already constrained? … Demand for the shipping industry’s main fuel is widely expected to collapse like never before in 2020, so it might come as a surprise that its value is soaring. Oil price information Last update: 2020-12-21 Nr. Install Exhaust Gas Cleaning Systems and continue using HSFO; or 3. Will there still be incentive for this arb to be open with a low 3.5% HSFO price and extremely uncertain demand volumes? The average oil price within the current or previous consumption month(s) is used as the index price. compliant HSFO demand from scrubbed ships, although our new modeling of fast steaming by scrubbed ships helps make up for some of this shortfall. HSFO is listed in the World's largest and most authoritative dictionary database of abbreviations and acronyms. Further information on each exchange's rules and product listings can be found by clicking on the links to CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX. Back in March, ClipperData unveiled its first forecast for marine fuel demand between 2020 and 2025. Price Movement Overview: IFO380. Gasoline Prices in Singapore averaged 1.49 USD/Liter from 1990 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 1.80 USD/Liter in June of 2015 and a record low of 0.61 USD/Liter in December of 1990. Price trend by month. Orders will slow once the HSFO price rises past a point that justifies the investment. Fuel efficiency will be key as bunker prices rise. The only markets left for 3.5% HSFO are power generation, which currently uses LNG and coal (approx. Oil price information Last update: 2020-12-21 Nr. It’s impact will likely be felt closer to 2030 as many new-build ships have dual fuel engines and the supply network has time to mature. Orders will slow once the HSFO price rises past a point that justifies the investment. (See Chart 1.) We also look at events that cause oil price movements. Cost of Production Economics Low Sulfur Fuel Oil Price (1%S) High Sulfur Fuel Oil Price (3-3.5%S) 1. linked to its price. $114/mt). LNG has been touted as a potential solution, however even with a high prediction on the number of LNG vessels (600 by 2020 – source: DNV GL) it still remains at <1% of total bunker demand. For more information on BunkerEx services, please contact team@bunker-ex.com. In 2021, the forecast natural gas share declines to 34% in response to a forecast increase in the price ofnatural gas delivered to electricity generators from an average of $2.44/MMBtu in 2020 to $3.38/MMBtu in 2021 (an increase of 39%) . Port HSFO-380 VLSFO 0.5% ULSFO 0.1% MGO Deliv. Hear from active traders about their experience adding CME Group futures and options on futures to their portfolio. The curves remain relatively flat despite "there being widespread concern that there may be insufficient supply to meet demand for LSFO," says Dunphy. Therefore the use cases for 3.5% HSFO are low outside of power generation and its difficult to see any support for prices of high sulphur products. US shale powers global oil market transformation. Share price indices are calculated from the prices of common shares of companies traded on national or foreign stock exchanges. marine gas oil, diesel, blends of HSFO and low sulphur distillate, low-sulphur residual fuel oil or hybrid fuels 2. Historically, Naphtha reached an all time high of 1180.47 in July of 2008. With refining capacity already strained and distillate cracks already incentivising high yields, it’s likely to result in an increase in 0.1% MGO price by at least $120/mt in order to compete with other end consumers and incentivise higher refinery output. SINGAPORE FUEL OIL 180 CST (PLATTS) FUTURES, Modern Slavery Act Transparency Statement. Low-sulfur price indicators bullish; true view months away Kevin Saville, Associate Managing Editor | Jul 01, 2019 6:00PM EDT Carriers, bunker suppliers, and refiners have had years to prepare for the IMO 2020 low-sulfur mandate, but as the six-month countdown begins, experts warn of a coming supply “scramble” and price uncertainty. In 2016, the International Marine Organization (IMO) agreed to limit the sulfur content in all marine fuels to 0.5 percent beginning in 2020, with the exception of fuel burned in Sulfur Emission Control Area regions, which are already at lower sulfur limits. Demand for HSFO, the main vessel fuel since the 1960’s, will fall from 3.5 mb/d to 1.4 mb/d in just one year. He estimates that bunker suppliers will buy in October and shippers will buy from November. 3-Day Price Trend Falling . …and Beyond. The future cost of 3.5% HSFO could go as low as $220/mt. World 3 [? Get quick access to premium educational content, including expert-led webinars, a real-time trading simulator, and more. These prices are not based on market activity. Although an increasing price differential between 3.5% HSFO and VLSFO/MGO may significantly decrease the theoretical payback time on a scrubber, there are larger issues and areas of uncertainty: Consider that the top 7 ports account for 60% of bunker demand (Singapore skews this number significantly). Singapore: HSFO Sales Rally on Scrubber-related Demand. Refinery complexity is commonly measured using the Nelson Complexity Index (NCI). Main impact in first year but manageable over time. Wholesale prices are forecast to fall in NSW and Victoria every year until 2025 with the exception of NSW in 2023. Relative LCO Hydrotreating Cost ECA Bunker Price (0.1%S) High Sulfur LCO Price/Value LS Bunker Price (0.5%S) 1. The only markets left for 3.5% HSFO are power generation, which currently uses LNG and coal (approx. November's figures may equal … The price is in US Dollar per 1 oil barrell. The data availability is denoted in the bracket, where D is the trading day followed by the number of business days. The price effects will occur once demand changes, at some point before the January cut-off date." 5 Still, the Dubai benchmark serves an important market role, with at least 18 million barrels of oil per day traded in the region indexed to its price6. Vanino. The price is in US Dollar per 1 oil barrell. Oil demand growth is forecast to accelerate to 1.2 mb/d, supported partly by prices remaining relatively subdued, higher global GDP growth than last year and by progress in settling trade disputes. Explore historical market data straight from the source to help refine your trading strategies. ]: Subscribe for a year or order a 1-month trial. The reference price will be a price in USD and cents per barrel equal to the average of the settlement prices of the USGC HSFO (Platts) Future for the contract month. $20.00 Muchke Bay. ‘Price information’ contains real time information on demand forecast, USEP, reserve and regulation prices, over 72 periods. Get quick access to tools and premium content, or customize a portfolio and set alerts to follow the market. In order to compete, 3.5% HSFO will need to be priced at parity with LNG and coal which results in a price of approximately $220/mt. Price trend by month. There has been speculation that this may be allowable if, for example, suitable fuels are not available or if a scrubber has been ordered, but not yet installed. Finished Diesel/Gasoil Price (Non-Marine) 1. Click here. Manage the risk associated with renewable energies, environmental change and sustainable investments. There were no trades for this contract during the time period chosen. 0.1% MGO will likely be the dominant bunker fuel of choice however refinery supply restrictions will make this much more expensive. The only markets left for 3.5% HSFO are power generation, which currently uses LNG and coal (approx. This leads to the forecast of price differences between LSFO and HSFO. Latest Prices, VLSFO Fuel Oil, IMO2020 Grade, 0.5%S. Still have questions? Conference ERCOT sees 15.5% reserve margin, up from 2020's 12.6%, down from May forecast. This weakens the case for non-compliance as a higher concentration of supply points is easier to police. IEA 2019. Our forecast for noncompliance is a bit more conservative than other estimates. This translates into HSFO supplies into Singapore, the world's largest bunker market, falling significantly during September or October. Detailed forecast table. With rising fuel prices, BunkerEx records Calorific Values of all fuel supplies to monitor variations between suppliers, ports and fuel types. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | BunkerEx Limited © 2019, BunkerEx: Our View on 2020 (Hint: Say NO to Scrubbers, for now…). We think physical bunker suppliers will be reluctant to sell non-compliant HSFO to vessels without a scrubber for fear of reprisal from port states. ‘Price information’ contains real time information on demand forecast, USEP, reserve and regulation prices, over 72 periods. Prices for fuel oil in Rotterdam in May are trading at about an $8.20 a barrel discount to Brent crude, according to fair value data compiled by Bloomberg. Settlement prices on instruments without open interest or volume are provided for web users only and are not published on Market Data Platform (MDP). Various estimates put 3.5% HSFO demand from scrubbers at 5-16% of total bunker demand (300-800kbpd), meaning at best 84% of 3.5% HSFO bunker demand will disappear (assuming full compliance). Over 2 mb/d of HSFO shifts to gasoil and VLSFO. ]: Subscribe for a year or order a 1-month trial. Please choose another time period or contract. $20.00 Wilhelmshaven. Switch to LNG Non-compliance is also possible. The remainder of demand will be met by marine gasoil (MGO). The East-West (Rotterdam vs Singapore 380cst price) typically trades at $20-30/mt to cover this freight cost. Given the recent bad press about open-loop scrubbers, closed-loop scrubbers are likely to be the only option. Search our directory for a broker that fits your needs. Rising Regional averages - Click for full details. In theory we estimate AGL’s exposure to falling prices could be … LNG, although much talked about will likely account for <1% of demand in 2020. Singapore Bunker Fuel Prices Today, IFO 380, IFO 180, MGO Prices per Ton, Live & Historical Price Charts Dec 21. While OPEC put noncompliance measured by illegal consumption of HSFO at around 30 percent, we expect something closer to 10 percent. No Data Available: There were no trades for this contract during the time period chosen. For 2020, we project VLSFO to price at US $531/mt in Rotterdam as compared to US $309/mt for HSFO, allowing for some economic benefit to a scrubber solution. The volume of oil demand affected by this change is significant. In addition, our HSFO cracks remain slightly below market forwards (-$20/bbl vs. market forwards at -$17.50/bbl). Price-wise, the spread between 0.5%S marine fuel and HSFO is significant. This contract has not yet traded and there is no quotes information available at this time. Naphtha decreased 105.65 USD/T or 19.71% since the beginning of 2020, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Biggest IFO380 1-Day Movers. Refinery complexity is commonly measured using the Nelson Complexity Index (NCI). This is happening because US shale is able to respond to price signals more swiftly than other sources of supply - in fact even more US supply could be on the way if prices rise beyond where they are today. Main impact in first year but manageable over time. We are instead now less constructive on distillate cracks, with a forecast close to market forwards ($18.50/bbl vs. market forwards at $19/bbl), in part due to weaker expected economic growth. Crude oil Brent price forecast for next months and years. The company is comprised of four Designated Contract Markets (DCMs). © 2020 CME Group Inc. All rights reserved. If we assume that the 12,000 are all the heavier fuel consuming ships, ships could continue to use 2.5m bpd of HSFO in 2020. increase from 37% in 2019 to 39% this year. BunkerEx, a company focused on technology solutions for bunker procurement has already seen demand from shipping companies for EUA, CER and VER Carbon Credits as a hedge against upcoming regulations. Crude oil Brent price forecast for next months and years. Oil 2019 Analysis & Forecast to 2024 CERAWeek, Houston, 11 March 2019 IEA Click here. Index: IFO 380: VLSFO 0.5: MGO 0.1: World [? 25% of future bunker demand will come from new compliant fuels. Singapore has two main sources of natural gas: Piped Natural Gas … ]: Subscribe for a year or order a 1-month trial. HSFO demand will creep back up in the coming years as more scrubbers are installed. Price data is available from 1 Jan 2003 except for Vesting Contract Reference Prices, since vesting contracts only took effect from 1 Jan 2004. Gasoline Prices in Singapore increased to 1.46 USD/Liter in November from 1.43 USD/Liter in October of 2020. Ship operators have a choice of 2020 compliance options: 1. The tone of IMO … Singapore Bunker Fuel Prices Today, IFO 380, IFO 180, MGO Prices per Ton, Live & Historical Price Charts Yearly, 2019 prices are 63.5 USD/bbl, 3.2 USD/bbl lower than the 2018 average price. Create a CMEGroup.com Account: More features, more insights. The regulations could have a major effect on refiner’s profitability and cause a price gap between LSFO and HSFO that only the best-prepared and equipped refiners will benefit from. $20.00 Skagen. $114/mt). In its latest monthly Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency cut its forecast for global demand growth in 2019 for a second consecutive month. The OPEC+ countries need to cut output by about 0.3 mb/d in January to comply with their new agreement. Djibouti LSMGO: $650pmt delivered ex-barge, $670pmt delivered ex-truck at berth in port, $660 pmt delivered ex-pipe at Horizon terminal in the port. Understand how CME Group can help you navigate new initial margin regulatory and reporting requirements. This was the first trade following the launch of ICE’s 0.5%S marine fuel contracts that day. Switch away from HSFO to low-sulphur fuels e.g. Kaohsiung Taiwanese state-owned CPC Corp on Monday lowered the price of Marine Fuel 0.5%, IFO380 and MGO by $5. The demand for 1% LSFO is already reflected in the high spread vs 3.5% HSFO. The IEA assumes 1mbpd of bunker demand will move to 0.5% VLSFO (out of a total bunker demand of 4mbpd) – i.e. S&P Global Platts Analytics forecasts that around 2,200 vessels … Coal’s forecast share of electricity generation falls from 24% But we don’t expect scrubber uptake to reach a level where HSFO demand makes a full come back. This means ships will need chemical additives on-board, plus a sludge removal plan which can complicate operations and increase costs. USGC HSFO was assessed at a discount of $29.19/b to Brent on November 13, and 3.5% FOB Rotterdam at a discount of $36.13/b to Brent on November 27, both all-time lows. And more IMO2020 Grade, 0.5 % VLSFO premium content, or customize a portfolio and set alerts to the... Recovery, led by US refiner buying, we expect something closer to 10 percent price and uncertain... By illegal consumption of HSFO or what HSFO stands for ago, with OPEC supply 2.4 mb/d lower of shares. The launch of ICE ’ s 0.5 %, IFO380 and MGO by $.! Cme Group futures and oil products oil ( HSFO ) price or Brent price for. About will likely be the only option increase from 37 % in 2019 to %... To feel pressure from the upcoming IMO 2020 rule price forecasts the cost 3.5. Landscape will change dramatically in 2020, Analytics and news from anywhere at.... 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